The MLB DFS picks, MLB DFS cheat sheet, and MLB DFS projections for DraftKings & FanDuel in the RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis of the upcoming MLB schedule forThursday, July 28. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on how you can build stacks in the RotoGrinders MLB optimizer – LineupHQ. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, projected ownership, rankings, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.
TEX vs. LAA
MLB DFS Analysis: (RHP | 189)
5200DK (10.40% of cap) /6200FD (17.71% of cap) / 25 Y (17.71%of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
| Projections | Proj. | Statcast Metrics | Stats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PlateIQ DK Proj. | 11.93 | Exit Velocity | 89.30 |
| PlateIQ FD Proj. | 23.10 | EV Percentile | 53 |
| PlateIQ Y Proj. | 13.41 | Barrel % | 9.40% |
| DK Pts$ | 2.29 | Barrel Percentile | 67 |
| FD Pts$ | 3.73 | Statcast Hard% | 37.60% |
| Y Pts$ | 5.36 | Hard% Percentile | 41 |
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MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
| Key Stats vs. L | Proj. | Key Stats vs. R | Stats |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 20.00 | Games | 20.00 |
| Expected L | 4.00 | Expected R | 5.00 |
| xFIP L | 5.55 | xFIP R | 4.60 |
| K/9 L | 8.21 | K/9 R | 9.22 |
| BB/9 L | 5.56 | BB/9 R | 3.95 |
| GB/FB L | 0.64 | GB/FB R | 1.16 |
| HR/9 L | 1.32 | HR/9 R | 2.63 |
| Hard% L | 35.40% | Hard% R | 36.30% |
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can’t seem to get it together at the MLB level. A 17.5% walk rate and a 10% walk rate will not do, and his ERA so far this season is on the wrong side of 7. His 4.87 SIERA says he’s been a bit unlucky, but a 4.87 SIERA is still one of the worst marks on the slate. All of that said, tonight he’ll face the Troutless Angels, a team striking out at a healthy 25% clip vs. RHPs so far this season. If there was ever a get-right spot, this is probably it. I have no faith in Howard to actually take advantage of it, but you can do worse at only $5,200 on DK if you’re looking for a full GPP punt tonight.
Quick Breakdown: He’s bad, but he’s cheap.
MLB DFS Analysis: (RHP | -227)
8900DK (17.80% of cap) /11100FD (31.71% of cap) / 52 Y (31.71%of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
| PlateIQ Category | Proj. | Statcast Metrics | Stats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PlateIQ DK Proj. | 21.94 | Exit Velocity | 88.10 |
| PlateIQ FD Proj. | 38.10 | EV Percentile | 32 |
| PlateIQ Y Proj. | 24.28 | Barrel % | 6.90% |
| DK Pts$ | 2.47 | Barrel Percentile | 37 |
| FD Pts$ | 3.43 | Statcast Hard% | 38.50% |
| Y Pts$ | 4.67 | Hard% Percentile | 47 |
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MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
| Key Stats vs. L | Proj. | Key Stats vs. R | Stats |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 39.00 | Games | 20.00 |
| Expected L | 4.00 | Expected R | 5.00 |
| xFIP L | 3.28 | xFIP R | 2.86 |
| K/9 L | 10.78 | K/9 R | 12.47 |
| BB/9 L | 3.23 | BB/9 R | 2.22 |
| GB/FB L | 1.37 | GB/FB R | 0.98 |
| HR/9 L | 1.44 | HR/9 R | 0.61 |
| Hard% L | 32.90% | Hard% R | 27.60% |
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now has 5 straight games with at least 10 strikeouts, which is quite phenomenal. He still managed to give up 6 runs to the Braves in his last start, but scoring runs is something the Braves do pretty well. The same can’t really be said of the Rangers. Texas has power, but they’re also a team that will swing and miss 23% of the time vs. right-handed pitching. There’s really no reason Ohtani should still cost less than $10,000 on DK, but he’s still inexplicably only $8,900 over there. He’s very easily the top pitcher on the slate and someone you can absolutely go all-in on tonight. $11,100 on FanDuel is more of a decision point, but he’s still No. 1 by a wide margin if you can make the money work.
Quick Breakdown: Ohtani is the best play on the slate, especially at his ludicrous DK salary.
MLB DFS Cheat Sheet:TEX Batting
| Player | DK Salary | FD Salary | DK/FD Proj | Baseline ISO (L/R) | Baseline wOBA | Barrel% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4900 | 3100 | 6.06 / 7.76 | 0.216 / 0.207 | 0.328 / 0.313 | 8.50% | |
| 5200 | 3600 | 7.64 / 9.93 | 0.258 / 0.232 | 0.359 / 0.345 | 11.80% | |
| 4300 | 2700 | 5.84 / 7.54 | 0.23 / 0.178 | 0.332 / 0.272 | 6.60% | |
| 5000 | 3800 | 5.35 / 6.82 | 0.208 / 0.228 | 0.288 / 0.307 | 11.30% | |
| 3300 | 2800 | 6.05 / 7.82 | 0.192 / 0.161 | 0.334 / 0.303 | NA | |
| 3800 | 3100 | 5.45 / 6.86 | 0.169 / 0.156 | 0.302 / 0.283 | 5.50% | |
| 2600 | 2100 | 5.42 / 6.95 | 0.179 / 0.175 | 0.289 / 0.286 | 9.30% | |
| 3000 | 2000 | 4.14 / 5.17 | 0.158 / 0.157 | 0.276 / 0.283 | 1.70% | |
| 2800 | 2200 | 4.43 / 5.69 | 0.146 / 0.093 | 0.304 / 0.272 | NA |
Break down every TEX vs. LAAhitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium
Texas has the lowest total on the slate at just 3.1 against the great . Ohtani’s ownership should be insanely high on DraftKings, but it’s justified considering how badly he’s mispriced. You can always play the direct leverage angle with power bats like , , and , but it’s obviously a low-percentage play in this matchup.
Optimal Plays – None
Secondary Plays – , ,
Stackability – RED
MLB DFS Cheat Sheet:LAA Batting
| Player | DK Salary | FD Salary | DK/FD Proj | Baseline ISO (L/R) | Baseline wOBA | Barrel% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8900 | 11100 | 21.94 / 38.1 | 0.266 / 0.306 | 0.356 / 0.389 | 20.20% | |
| 4000 | 2900 | 9.45 / 12.37 | 0.212 / 0.214 | 0.363 / 0.359 | 12.20% | |
| 3500 | 2400 | 7.04 / 9.07 | 0.16 / 0.121 | 0.311 / 0.271 | 5.20% | |
| 2900 | 2600 | 8.37 / 10.95 | 0.193 / 0.215 | 0.285 / 0.318 | 10.60% | |
| 3400 | 2200 | 7.86 / 10.29 | 0.13 / 0.186 | 0.29 / 0.331 | 11.30% | |
| 2200 | 2100 | 6.63 / 8.52 | 0.189 / 0.179 | 0.278 / 0.275 | 9.30% | |
| 2100 | 2100 | 6.19 / 7.85 | 0.087 / 0.098 | 0.283 / 0.285 | 3.40% | |
| Brandon Marsh | 2400 | 2300 | 6.92 / 8.89 | 0.117 / 0.151 | 0.267 / 0.305 | 9.30% |
| Andrew Velazquez | 2000 | 2100 | 6.05 / 7.64 | 0.123 / 0.148 | 0.246 / 0.262 | 7.00% |
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Nobody would confuse the Angels with a good offense right now, but they do have a fairly healthy 4.6 implied run total tonight against the struggling . Unfortunately, we can’t roster Ohtani as a hitter, which takes a big bite out of the Halos’ stack appeal. , , and are the consolation prizes, and I still don’t mind getting there given Howard’s woes. Otherwise you’re looking to save with , , or Brandon Marsh in your full LAA stacks. Getting a few shares of these bats makes plenty of sense at what should be reasonable ownership.
Optimal Plays – ,
Secondary Plays – , , , Brandon Marsh
Stackability – YELLOW
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