Pitching prospects are a tough read. From season to season a pitcher’s stuff can fluctuate. What works one season can often back up or get “figured out” by the next year. Pitchers are constantly evolving in the minor leagues. While hitting prospects might be more like baking, where being precise with the ingredients and timing will yield consistent results, pitching prospects are like barbecue. It takes time and attention to figure out the right mix and sequencing to discover results at the next level. With this knowledge it’s important to find the best combination of stuff, results and pitchability when projecting out pitchers long term.
Today we’ll discuss 20 interesting arms with an opportunity to break out this season in minor league baseball.
Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, Cardinals: Sometimes it’s the unusual that drives success. Hjerpe is certainly that. A low-slot lefthander with a fastball that sat 88-90 mph and touched 92-93 mph this spring is an unlikely case to fit into the breakout category. It’s Hjerpe’s unusual arm slot and combination of three good pitch shapes that makes him intriguing. His flat vertical approach angle on his fastball blends perfectly with his above-average changeup and sweepy slider. Opposing batters are tasked with identifying each pitch out of his hand, a feat that’s easier said than done. This spring, and during Hjerpe’s pro debut in 2022, we’ve seen some struggles to command his secondaries but his track record shows that may just be a blip on the radar.
Justin Wrobleski, LHP, Dodgers: Every season the Dodgers find another breakout-type arm outside the first few rounds of the draft. After three stops during his collegiate career, Wrobleski matriculated to Oklahoma State where he made nine starts for the Cowboys before having Tommy John surgery. The Dodgers selected him in the 11th round of the 2021 draft and he resurfaced last season flashing some of the best stuff of any lefthander in the Dodgers system. His low-to-mid-90s fastball pairs good shape with some power and his combination of an above-average slider, a cutter and a changeup gives him a variety of looks to play off of his heater.
Marco Raya, RHP, Twins: The Raya breakout may have already happened had it not been for injuries. In fact, Raya is dealing with injury currently and began the 2023 campaign on the injured list for High-A Cedar Rapids. There’s certainly some risk with this pick, as Raya has struggled to stay healthy. A smaller righthander, Raya fits into an intriguing demographic that’s wrought with risk. He has a combination of plus shapes in his four-seam fastball, sweepy slider, changeup and curveball. If you catch a healthy Raya on the right day the upside he possesses is apparent, it’s simply a matter of showing he can handle the rigors of starting and hoping that the injuries won’t take a toll on his well above-average stuff.
Robert Gasser, LHP, Brewers: There’s a case to be made that Gasser already broke out in 2022. Part of the Brewers return in a trade that sent Josh Hader to the Padres, Gasser is a lefty who lacks premier velocity but will mix in a variety of secondary pitches. His fastball sits 91-94 mph but plays above its velocity due to a flatter vertical approach angle. He pairs that with a sweepy slider, a cutter and a changeup that works like a reverse sweeper to give him four directional movements in his arsenal.
Forrest Whitley, RHP, Astros: What’s old is new again. Whitley has been excellent over his first two appearances with Triple-A Sugar Land to begin the 2023 season. After years of injury-plagued campaigns, Whitley has discovered an arsenal that has recaptured his raw ability. His fastball is sitting mid-to-high 90s and mixes four-seam and sinker shape. He’s showing two breaking balls, a sweeper that’s marked as a curveball in the low-to-mid 80s and a cutter with slider shape in the upper 80s with heavy cut. The cutter is a unicorn pitch with over six inches of glove-side break at 89-91 mph. His changeup in the mid 80s has excellent vertical separation and heavy arm-side run, showing as much as 20-plus inches of horizontal break.
Mason Miller, RHP, Athletics: A fire-balling righthander, Miller missed most of 2022 with a right shoulder strain but resurfaced in the Arizona Fall League after the season, displaying some of the best stuff in the league. Miller’s fastball consistently hits triple digits and has touched 102 mph, and he mixes in a slider in the high 80s, a low-90s cutter and a changeup. There’s some relief risk here with Miller but much of that centers around his injury history and lack of substantial innings. His stuff and ability to command a high-octane arsenal give him a chance to start long term. Even if the starting route doesn’t work out, Miller has the ability to dominate in a high-leverage relief role.
Andrew Taylor, RHP, Astros: Few organizations have shown the ability to produce viable starting pitching as consistently as the Astros have. Taylor, a supplemental second-round pick out of Central Michigan, was praised for a low-90s, high-ride fastball and his ability to command it. His secondaries remained a question, as he mixed in a pair of breaking balls and a changeup that flashed above-average. This spring Taylor has shown a few extra ticks on his fastball without sacrificing the plus vertical movement on his four-seamer. The Astros worked with Taylor heading into the season to improve the quality of his secondaries, with a sweepy slider, a two-plane curveball and a changeup all showing improved shape this spring. Taylor might just be the latest ball of clay the Astros shape into a viable mid-rotation starter.
Porter Hodge, RHP, Cubs: After a physical transformation heading into 2022, Hodge arguably broke out a year ago. That said, outside of Cubs minor league aficionados Hodge is largely an unknown name. Armed with a four-pitch mix, Hodge is the quintessential supination-profile pitcher. He employs a lower efficiency, high-spin fastball with heavy cut that sits in the low-to-mid 90s. While his fastball generated great results in 2022, his slider is his standout pitch. A low-to-mid-80s sweeper with ride and spin rates in the 2,600-2,700 rpm range, the pitch generated whiffs at a rate greater than 45% last season. Hodge has an opportunity to take a step forward this season to become a top 10 prospect in the system and possibly a top 100 prospect.
Richard Fitts, RHP, Yankees: In the early stages of the 2021 draft cycle Fitts was viewed as a mid-to-late-first round talent. Fitts dealt with injuries during his draft year and tumbled down boards, allowing the Yankees to land him in the sixth round. Fitts made an alteration to his delivery halfway through the 2022 season and the results began to improve. Fitts uses three pitches in a four-seam fastball with ride and cut in the low-to-mid 90s, a breaking ball that looks like a cutter-slider hybrid in the low-to-mid 80s and an upper-80s changeup. Following the changes Fitts made over the 2022 season, he’s poised for a real breakout in 2023.
Austin Vernon, RHP, Rays: It’s been a long road for Vernon, who pitched at the now defunct NC Central program before entering pro ball as a bit of an afterthought. He slimmed down a heavy frame heading into 2021 and showed off a streamlined operation that was far more direct to the plate. He uses four pitches in a mid-to-high-90s fastball with ride and bore, a flat sweeper in the low-to-mid 80s, a changeup with heavy arm-side run and good vertical separation from his fastball and a two-plane curveball. Despite Vernon’s size he has a lower release height and a pronation-style profile, generating lower spin on his pitches but high efficiency shapes. The 6-foot-8 Vernon, who began the 2023 season with High-A Bowling Green, is likely to end up in the bullpen long term, but he’s an interesting profile worth keeping an eye on.
Luis Perales, RHP, Red Sox: One of the most talented arms in the Red Sox system, Perales has standout stuff and will show flashes of the ability to command his arsenal. His fastball sits in the mid-to-high 90s with plus vertical movement, and he pairs it with a mid-to-high-80s slider with some sweep, as well as a changeup. Strikes have been a problem at times, but Perales is young and has premium stuff. His first start of the 2023 season for Low-A Salem was rocky, but Perales has the stuff to take a sizable step forward this season.
Sem Robberse, RHP, Blue Jays: A native of the Netherlands, Robberse is the rare European prospect. He’s an excellent mover on the mound with plenty of projection remaining. He uses four pitches in a four-seam fastball, a slider, a cutter and a changeup. Coming into the season Robberse saw an uptick in fastball velocity and is now sitting more in the 92-94 mph range—he sat in the 88-91 mph range in 2022. His sweepy slider in the low-to-mid 80s is his best pitch. His changeup will flash plus at times and opposing batters struggled against the pitch in 2022. With lots of upside remaining in his frame and stuff, Robberse could break out in 2023.
Miguel Ullola, RHP, Astros: The Astros righthander is another young, powerful pitcher with premium stuff, but there are questions around his ability to throw strikes consistently. His four-seam fastball boasts an outlier combination of velocity in the mid 90s and top-of-the-scale vertical movement. His high-ride fastball generates induced vertical break numbers between 19-21 inches consistently. His cutter-like slider is his best secondary, but he also mixes in a curveball and a changeup as additional secondaries. He struggles to throw strikes, but is just a small tweak away from unlocking another gear in 2023.
Emmet Sheehan, RHP, Dodgers: You can argue that Sheehan broke out in 2022 when he reached Double-A, pitching to a 2.91 ERA over 68 innings. He performed well in the Arizona Fall League and was assigned back to Double-A to begin the 2023 season. However, it’s reasonable to believe we haven’t seen the best from Sheehan just yet. Sheehan’s uniquely low release height allows his fastball to play up and makes it a bat-missing weapon. His changeup is the best of his three secondaries, but his slider has shown improvement during his time in the Dodgers system. It wouldn’t be a shock if Sheehan cracked the Top 100 by season’s end.
Ronan Kopp, LHP, Dodgers: No pitcher on this list boasts the combination of plus pitches that Kopp does. With a mid-to-high-90s four-seam fastball with heavy ride and a sweepy slider in the upper 80s to low 90s, Kopp has a pair of pitches with whiff rates north of 40% and strike rates higher than 60%. His changeup is a distant third pitch, mostly due to a lack of command for it. There’s a high level of relief risk with Kopp due to his command issues, but he still has significant upside.
River Ryan, RHP, Dodgers: Ryan was a two-way player out of North Carolina-Pembroke who showed promise on the mound, and the Dodgers acquired him from the Padres for Matt Beaty prior to the 2022 regular season. What followed was a strong performance across both levels of Class A, as Ryan struck out 70 over 48 innings. Assigned to Double-A Tulsa out of camp this spring, Ryan has boasted some of the best pure stuff in the Dodgers system. He employs five different pitches, highlighted by a mid-to-high-90s four-seam fastball with high spin rates and heavy ride and bore. His best secondary is his cutter, which he pairs with an above-average changeup, a two-plane curveball and a sweepy slider in the mid-to-high 80s. It’s a robust arsenal with a variety of pitch shapes, giving Ryan true multi-directional movement across his pitch mix.
Jarlin Susana, RHP, Nationals: Do you like raw power arms? How about pitchers who can throw 102 mph consistently? If so, then Susana is a pitcher you’re likely going to want to see. The Nationals acquired the righthander in the Juan Soto 2022 trade deadline deal, and few pitchers boast the level of stuff that Susana does. He uses an upper-90s four-seamer that touches 100-plus mph as well as a tighter slider and a changeup. He’s still young and is refining his pitch mix, but if Susana can figure out his command and sequencing he has major upside and potential. There’s plenty of relief risk in his profile, but Susana has a few years to figure out the intricacies of starting.
Dahian Santos, RHP, Blue Jays: As a 19-year-old, Santos struck out 120 batters across 73.1 innings with Low-A Dunedin in 2022 while holding batters to a .181 average. He saw a late season promotion to High-A Vancouver but did not fare as well upon his promotion. Santos’ wicked low-80s sweeper generates over 14 inches of horizontal break and drives excellent results. Opposing batters whiffed at it at a rate greater than 50%, with a chase rate north of 35%. With plenty of projection still remaining, the rest of Santos’ arsenal could soon join his slider in terms of quality and stuff.
Trace Bright, RHP, Orioles: A 2022 fifth-rounder out of Auburn, the Orioles tracked the righthander throughout his draft spring. His stuff ticked up once he got into conference play and he became a target for Baltimore. The early returns so far look as though Bright is a potential find for an organization that’s made that a habit in recent drafts. Bright uses four pitches led by a fastball that flashes above-average attributes. His fastball sits 92-95 mph with 19-20 inches of induced vertical break from a 12:45 tilt. His primary secondary weapon is his high-spin, mid-70s curveball with spin rates in the 2,800-2,900 rpm range and serious depth consistently clocking readings of -18 to -19 induced vertical break numbers. His slider is a sweepy low-to-mid-80s offering he’s still learning to command, while his changeup has taken a sizable step forward, showing 17-18 inches of arm-side run at times in the mid 80s.
Christopher Campos, RHP, Dodgers: Campos was a two-way player at St. Mary’s, spending most of his time as the Gaels shortstop. The Dodgers selected Campos in the seventh round of last July’s draft and he’s been used exclusively as a pitcher since then. Campos’ upside is immense and under the Dodgers tutelage he’s a name to follow this season. Campos’ mix is highlighted by a four-seam fastball at 93-95 mph with upwards of 19-20 inches of induced vertical break and heavy bore. He generates serious extension in the 6.6-6.8 range and pairs it with a low-80s slurvy slider and a changeup. It’s still very early in Campos’ development but he looks to be yet another gem uncovered by the Dodgers.
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